← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Shota Imanaga (ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.14) · home: Janson Junk (ERA 4.11, WHIP 1.3)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.06 | $20.11 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 54% | 1.83 |
| Miami Marlins win | 46% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.73 | 1.75 | +1.0% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.97 | 2.11 | +7.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1493.82 | 1549.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.99 | -3.78 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.90 |