← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Max Scherzer (ERA 6.16, WHIP 1.39) · home: Seth Lugo (ERA 5.03, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Chicago Cubs · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 lost leg 2: San Francisco Giants win in New York Mets v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.46 won leg 3: Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.06 | $20.11 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Toronto Blue Jays win in Kansas City Royals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +4% | +10.10 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 52% | 1.93 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 48% | 2.01 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.93 | 1.93 | 0.0% | |
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.76 | 1.90 | +7.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kansas City Royals | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1468.81 | 1524.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.46 | 14.07 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.40 |