← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 02:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jackson Kent (ERA 5.59, WHIP 1.71) · home: Blake Snell (ERA 2.42, WHIP 1.08)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.40 | $24.00 | +3% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.81 | $27.62 | +33% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.80 | $28.00 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 74% | 1.36 |
| Washington Nationals win | 26% | 14.00 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 3.29 | 11.50 | +250.1% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.31 | 1.08 | -17.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1571.20 | 1460.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.67 | 1.50 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 2.38 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.30 |