← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Sep 5, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Max Fried (ERA 2.8, WHIP 1) · home: Walker Buehler (ERA 4.66, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 14.81 | $27.62 | +33% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +8% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 52% | 2.01 |
| San Diego Padres win | 48% | 2.15 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.76 | 1.96 | +11.2% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1526.52 | 1560.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.24 | 8.82 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.38 | 2.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.70 |