Philadelphia Phillies 2–5 Atlanta Braves

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Sep 4, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Chris Sale (ERA 2.06, WHIP 1) · home: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.52, WHIP 1.19)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93	Portfolio	$11.17	1.93	$10.39	+6%	-11.17	lost
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.80 lost leg 2: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won leg 3: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost	Chaos parlay	$2.00	14.81	$27.62	+33%	-2.00	lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.86	$8.61	+9%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Philadelphia Phillies win	52%	1.93
Atlanta Braves win	48%	2.14

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Atlanta Braves win		1.90	1.97	+3.9%
Philadelphia Phillies win		1.70	1.88	+10.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Atlanta Braves	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5
Philadelphia Phillies	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Philadelphia Phillies	Atlanta Braves
congestion 21d	17.00	19.00
elo	1561.39	1544.00
elo momentum (last 5)	8.75	-2.89
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	2.13	2.23
runs against avg (last 10)	2.70	3.30
runs for avg (last 10)	3.80	4.30