← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 31, 10:05 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Portfolio | $15.03 | 1.65 | $9.77 | +5% | -15.03 | lost |
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.42 | $8.84 | +22% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 59% | 1.65 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 41% | 2.73 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.14 | 2.35 | +9.6% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.55 | 1.63 | +5.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Atlanta Braves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1548.85 | 1461.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.47 | -1.12 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.19 | 1.83 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.70 |