← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 31, 11:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.17 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.17 | $11.70 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.42 | $8.84 | +22% | -2.00 | lost |
Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Detroit Tigers win | 45% | 2.17 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 2.01 | 2.14 | +6.5% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.73 | 1.75 | +1.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | 11 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1458.58 | 1497.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.22 | -3.27 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.20 |