← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 31, 10:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Detroit Tigers win in Minnesota Twins v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 lost leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.42 | $8.84 | +22% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +7% | +6.21 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 41% | 2.47 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.24 | 2.40 | +7.3% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.65 | 1.60 | -2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1554.26 | 1480.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.51 | -9.49 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 1.22 | 1.21 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.40 |