← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 28, 10:45 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.35 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.35 | $13.50 | +16% | +13.50 | won |
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.42 won leg 3: Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.95 | $11.89 | +22% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +8% | +11.40 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Washington Nationals win | 44% | 2.35 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 1.70 | 1.65 | -3.2% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 2.05 | 2.29 | +11.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1454.72 | 1496.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.77 | 3.47 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.24 | 2.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |