← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 28, 11:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.42 won leg 3: Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.95 | $11.89 | +22% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in New York Yankees v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 58% | 1.73 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 42% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 2.24 | 2.40 | +7.3% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.65 | 1.62 | -1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1554.40 | 1561.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.83 | 4.54 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.01 | 2.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.40 |