← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Paul Skenes (ERA 3.95, WHIP 1.14) · home: Michael King (ERA 3.38, WHIP 1.17)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.89 | Portfolio | $16.69 | 1.89 | $14.85 | +7% | -16.69 | lost |
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Seattle Mariners v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.56 | $15.12 | +31% | -2.00 | lost |
San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 52% | 1.90 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 48% | 2.16 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.83 | 2.13 | +16.6% | |
| San Diego Padres win | 1.79 | 1.77 | -1.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Diego Padres | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1536.14 | 1490.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.57 | -0.71 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.90 |