← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.9, WHIP 1.28) · home: Gage Jump (ERA 4.83, WHIP 1.51)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Seattle Mariners v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.56 | $15.12 | +31% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | +12.88 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.29 | $12.88 | +7% | +12.88 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 58% | 1.76 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 42% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.62 | 1.76 | +8.7% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.21 | 2.01 | -9.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1407.14 | 1466.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.34 | -1.48 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |