Seattle Mariners 4–1 Philadelphia Phillies

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 26, 01:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Aaron Nola (ERA 5.12, WHIP 1.42) · home: George Kirby (ERA 4.18, WHIP 1.36)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Philadelphia Phillies win in Seattle Mariners v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05	Portfolio	$11.25	2.05	$11.81	+5%	-11.25	lost
leg 1: San Diego Padres win in San Diego Padres v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost leg 2: Philadelphia Phillies win in Seattle Mariners v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.29 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.56	$15.12	+31%	-2.00	lost
Philadelphia Phillies win in Seattle Mariners v Philadelphia Phillies · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.01	$10.10	+8%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Seattle Mariners win	52%	2.66
Philadelphia Phillies win	48%	2.09

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Philadelphia Phillies win		2.01	1.79	-11.2%
Seattle Mariners win		1.73	2.10	+21.2%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Seattle Mariners	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	—	4

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Seattle Mariners	Philadelphia Phillies
congestion 21d	19.00	18.00
elo	1489.62	1550.15
elo momentum (last 5)	0.39	5.35
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	8.10	3.90
runs for avg (last 10)	5.30	6.60