← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.15, WHIP 1.19) · home: Logan Henderson (ERA 2.7, WHIP 0.87)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.45 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.45 | $14.50 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.16 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.71 | $11.43 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +5% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 58% | 1.79 |
| Atlanta Braves win | 42% | 13.41 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 2.09 | 2.40 | +14.5% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.57 | 1.60 | +1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1579.74 | 1538.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.56 | -9.25 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 2.80 |