← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 11:15 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.16 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.71 | $11.43 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.16 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.16 | $11.60 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 50% | 2.01 |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 50% | 2.16 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.79 | 2.10 | +17.3% | |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.97 | 1.76 | -10.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1493.84 | 1527.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.45 | -11.43 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.00 |