← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.42, WHIP 1.06) · home: Ryan Weathers (ERA 3.56, WHIP 1.19)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Portfolio | $20.26 | 1.93 | $18.84 | +8% | -20.26 | lost |
leg 1: New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Baltimore Orioles v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.16 lost leg 3: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 6.71 | $11.43 | +23% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 51% | 4.13 |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 49% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 2.09 | 1.97 | -6.0% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.65 | 1.88 | +14.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1559.22 | 1513.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.92 | 2.96 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.30 |