⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Los Angeles Dodgers 5–4 Pittsburgh Pirates

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 02:10 AM UTC

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 won
leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 lost
leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won
Chaos parlay$2.008.50$15.00+21%-2.00lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18
Elo value MLB$10.003.18$21.78+7%-10.00lost
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18
MLB dog variance$10.003.18$21.78+7%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win66%1.76
Pittsburgh Pirates win34%3.29

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Pittsburgh Pirates win2.732.55-6.7%
Los Angeles Dodgers win1.461.42-2.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

12345678910Total
Pittsburgh Pirates10100002004
Los Angeles Dodgers20200000015

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles DodgersPittsburgh Pirates
congestion 21d19.0018.00
elo1577.031493.32
elo momentum (last 5)-2.502.73
matches since win0.000.00
rest days2.062.40
runs against avg (last 10)4.204.50
runs for avg (last 10)4.904.50