← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 02:10 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 won leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.50 | $15.00 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 3.18 | $21.78 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 66% | 1.76 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 34% | 3.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.73 | 2.55 | -6.7% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.46 | 1.42 | -2.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1577.03 | 1493.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.50 | 2.73 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.06 | 2.40 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |