← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 22, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nick Lodolo (ERA 4.52, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 won leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.50 | $15.00 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 56% | 1.73 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 44% | 3.08 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.09 | 3.08 | +46.9% | |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 1.73 | 1.40 | -19.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | — | 9 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arizona Diamondbacks | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1519.01 | 1464.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.34 | -3.51 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 1.38 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |