← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Sonny Gray (ERA 2.65, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 won leg 2: Pittsburgh Pirates win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 3.18 lost leg 3: Arizona Diamondbacks win in Arizona Diamondbacks v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.50 | $15.00 | +21% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +7% | +5.71 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 60% | 1.65 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 40% | 2.61 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.29 | 2.52 | +10.2% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.62 | 1.55 | -4.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1555.14 | 1460.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.22 | -6.83 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.13 | 1.25 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.90 |