← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 20, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: George Kirby (ERA 3.89, WHIP 1.31) · home: Robert Gasser (ERA 4.54, WHIP 1.24)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $19.34 | 1.76 | $14.75 | +6% | +14.75 | won |
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.76 | $15.52 | +44% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +17% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 55% | 1.80 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 45% | 6.29 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.01 | 2.09 | +4.2% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.62 | 1.76 | +8.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1575.83 | 1489.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.72 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.70 |