Cincinnati Reds 5–4 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 10:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5.07, WHIP 1.48) · home: Chase Burns (ERA 2.47, WHIP 1.09)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	8.76	$15.52	+44%	-2.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.28	$12.80	+13%	-10.00	lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.09	$10.95	+5%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Cincinnati Reds win	56%	1.76
St. Louis Cardinals win	44%	2.28

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
St. Louis Cardinals win		2.05	2.24	+9.1%
Cincinnati Reds win		1.70	1.68	-1.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	4
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	—	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d	20.00	20.00
elo	1464.65	1504.10
elo momentum (last 5)	-11.95	14.16
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	4.90	2.90
runs for avg (last 10)	2.80	5.00