← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael King (ERA 3.41, WHIP 1.19) · home: Robert Stock (ERA 6.57, WHIP 1.86)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won leg 2: St. Louis Cardinals win in Cincinnati Reds v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.28 lost leg 3: New York Mets win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 8.76 | $15.52 | +44% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Mets win in New York Mets v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.18 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.18 | $11.80 | +9% | +11.80 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 54% | 1.79 |
| New York Mets win | 46% | 2.19 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.76 | 1.75 | -0.7% | |
| New York Mets win | 2.01 | 2.14 | +6.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Mets | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1490.83 | 1533.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.95 | 4.38 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |