← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: AJ Smith-Shawver (ERA 4.15, WHIP 1.38) · home: Taj Bradley (ERA 3.98, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Minnesota Twins v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.41 | $8.82 | +27% | -2.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Minnesota Twins v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | -0% | +13.42 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 55% | 5.90 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 45% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.52 | 1.90 | +24.9% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.34 | 1.93 | -17.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | — | 6 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1468.28 | 1540.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.56 | -13.78 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |