← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 20, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Walbert Ureña (ERA 2.67, WHIP 1.25) · home: Ethan Pecko (ERA undefined, WHIP undefined)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Minnesota Twins v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.41 | $8.82 | +27% | -2.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.62 | $6.21 | +9% | +6.21 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 62% | 1.65 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 38% | 3.96 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.59 | 3.96 | +52.8% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.46 | 1.29 | -11.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1503.94 | 1422.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.22 | 5.16 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |