← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 10:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sandy Alcantara (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.17) · home: Aaron Nola (ERA 5.33, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Portfolio | $16.63 | 1.83 | $13.80 | +6% | +13.80 | won |
leg 1: Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 won leg 2: Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 won leg 3: Atlanta Braves win in Minnesota Twins v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.41 | $8.82 | +27% | -2.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +10% | +7.94 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 55% | 1.83 |
| Miami Marlins win | 45% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.05 | 2.09 | +2.1% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.76 | 1.76 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1544.80 | 1493.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.82 | 2.65 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.40 |