← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Logan Henderson (ERA 2.88, WHIP 0.91) · home: Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.93, WHIP 0.93)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Draw in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.15 leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 leg 3: New York Yankees win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.17 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 28.94 | $55.89 | +43% | — | pending |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.59 | $15.90 | +12% | +15.90 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | +4% | +13.99 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 61% | 1.62 |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 39% | 2.59 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 2.29 | 2.50 | +9.3% | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win | 1.50 | 1.56 | +3.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1575.55 | 1570.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.90 | -3.65 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |