← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 05:37 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Weathers (ERA 3.69, WHIP 1.21) · home: Dylan Cease (ERA 2.4, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Draw in Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers · Match result @ 5.15 leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59 leg 3: New York Yankees win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.17 | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 28.94 | $55.89 | +43% | — | pending |
New York Yankees win in Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.17 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.17 | $11.70 | +11% | +11.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 50% | 7.25 |
| New York Yankees win | 50% | 2.17 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.90 | 2.03 | +7.1% | |
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.79 | 1.83 | +1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1510.80 | 1545.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.55 | -3.82 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.80 |