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Oakland Athletics 3–5 Texas Rangers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 01:40 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.43, WHIP 1.24) · home: J.T. Ginn (ERA 3.41, WHIP 1.21)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost
leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost
leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost
Chaos parlay$2.007.71$13.42+16%-2.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34
Pitcher edge$10.002.34$13.42+4%-10.00lost
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22
MLB dog variance$10.002.22$12.20-1%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Texas Rangers win56%1.79
Oakland Athletics win44%2.34

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Texas Rangers win1.571.70+8.4%
Oakland Athletics win2.192.190.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Texas Rangers0000130015
Oakland Athletics0300000003

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOakland AthleticsTexas Rangers
congestion 21d18.0019.00
elo1416.511479.57
elo momentum (last 5)-1.97-12.56
matches since win0.004.00
rest days1.001.00
runs against avg (last 10)6.604.00
runs for avg (last 10)4.503.40