← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: MacKenzie Gore (ERA 4.43, WHIP 1.24) · home: J.T. Ginn (ERA 3.41, WHIP 1.21)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.71 | $13.42 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.34 | $13.42 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.22 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.22 | $12.20 | -1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 56% | 1.79 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 44% | 2.34 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers win | 1.57 | 1.70 | +8.4% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.19 | 2.19 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Texas Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1416.51 | 1479.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.97 | -12.56 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |