← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Patrick Sandoval (ERA 3.3, WHIP 1.7) · home: Lake Bachar (ERA 3.97, WHIP 1.08)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.71 | $13.42 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.93 | $9.32 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 50% | 13.41 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 50% | 2.05 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.90 | 1.85 | -2.4% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.84 | 2.01 | +8.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1487.11 | 1554.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.91 | -2.51 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.40 |