← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 04:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Trevor Rogers (ERA 4.21, WHIP 1.25) · home: Freddy Peralta (ERA 5.33, WHIP 1.5)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Boston Red Sox win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.93 lost leg 2: Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Texas Rangers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.34 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.71 | $13.42 | +16% | -2.00 | lost |
Tampa Bay Rays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 59% | 1.72 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 41% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 2.34 | 2.24 | -4.5% | |
| Tampa Bay Rays win | 1.55 | 1.69 | +9.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tampa Bay Rays | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1538.71 | 1499.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.42 | 1.94 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.30 |