← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: J.T. Ginn (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.21)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 lost leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.20 | $8.41 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.46 | $4.59 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.46 | $4.59 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 65% | 4.13 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 35% | 3.09 |
across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.46 | 2.98 | +21.3% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.48 | 1.40 | -5.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1561.98 | 1418.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.90 | -1.71 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 7.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 3.20 |