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Boston Red Sox 3–4 Oakland Athletics

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 05:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: J.T. Ginn (ERA 3.51, WHIP 1.21)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won
leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 lost
leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won
Chaos parlay$2.005.20$8.41+30%-2.00lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46
Drought fade$10.001.46$4.59+8%-10.00lost
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46
Elo value MLB$10.001.46$4.59+8%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Boston Red Sox win65%4.13
Oakland Athletics win35%3.09

across 6 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Oakland Athletics win2.462.98+21.3%
Boston Red Sox win1.481.40-5.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Oakland Athletics1001000114
Boston Red Sox0100200003

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBoston Red SoxOakland Athletics
congestion 21d19.0019.00
elo1561.981418.48
elo momentum (last 5)5.90-1.71
matches since win1.000.00
rest days0.890.89
runs against avg (last 10)3.707.10
runs for avg (last 10)7.503.20