← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 04:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Brady Singer (ERA 4.67, WHIP 1.43) · home: Brad Lord (ERA 3.81, WHIP 1.2)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 lost leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.20 | $8.41 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.09 | $10.95 | +9% | +10.95 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 51% | 2.05 |
| Washington Nationals win | 49% | 2.09 |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.05 | 1.92 | -6.2% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.97 | 1.94 | -1.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1471.21 | 1477.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.08 | -2.50 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |