← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 05:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Grayson Rodriguez (ERA 7.24, WHIP 1.59) · home: Ryan Gusto (ERA 4.8, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 won leg 2: Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.46 lost leg 3: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.09 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.20 | $8.41 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +10% | +7.03 | won |
Miami Marlins win in Miami Marlins v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +10% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 43% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.09 | 2.28 | +8.8% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.65 | 1.67 | +1.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Miami Marlins | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | 12 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1488.02 | 1417.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.70 | -0.34 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.30 |