Chicago Cubs 5–1 Los Angeles Dodgers

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 12:05 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Tarik Skubal (ERA 2.79, WHIP 0.91) · home: Javier Assad (ERA 3.75, WHIP 1.16)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 won leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.74	$17.48	+63%	+17.48	won
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	+29%	+16.59	won
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.66	$16.59	+29%	+16.59	won
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66	Portfolio	$19.90	2.66	$33.01	+13%	+33.01	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Los Angeles Dodgers win	57%	6.29
Chicago Cubs win	43%	2.84

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Dodgers win		1.90	2.06	+8.7%
Chicago Cubs win		1.93	1.81	-6.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Chicago Cubs	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	1	—	5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Chicago Cubs	Los Angeles Dodgers
congestion 21d	17.00	16.00
elo	1550.97	1584.49
elo momentum (last 5)	4.64	-13.68
matches since win	0.00	4.00
rest days	1.00	1.00
runs against avg (last 10)	2.90	5.40
runs for avg (last 10)	5.70	4.20