Baltimore Orioles 3–1 Los Angeles Angels

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 10:35 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Grayson Rodriguez (ERA 7.98, WHIP 1.75)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v Los Angeles Dodgers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.66 won leg 2: Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won leg 3: Kansas City Royals win in Kansas City Royals v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	9.74	$17.48	+63%	+17.48	won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67	Drought fade	$10.00	1.67	$6.75	+13%	+6.75	won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.67	$6.75	+13%	+6.75	won
Baltimore Orioles win in Baltimore Orioles v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67	Portfolio	$15.69	1.67	$10.59	+4%	+10.59	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Baltimore Orioles win	56%	1.76
Los Angeles Angels win	44%	2.34

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Los Angeles Angels win		1.97	2.24	+13.5%
Baltimore Orioles win		1.76	1.68	-4.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Los Angeles Angels	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
Baltimore Orioles	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	—	3

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Baltimore Orioles	Los Angeles Angels
congestion 21d	15.00	15.00
elo	1498.48	1417.84
elo momentum (last 5)	-9.65	-4.48
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	2.21	2.14
runs against avg (last 10)	5.80	4.50
runs for avg (last 10)	4.00	2.80