← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Robert Gasser (ERA 4.71, WHIP 1.17) · home: José Soriano (ERA 3.29, WHIP 1.25)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won leg 2: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.92 | $9.84 | +34% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +13% | +6.75 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Portfolio | $24.64 | 1.73 | $18.05 | +7% | +18.05 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 56% | 1.88 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 44% | 3.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.70 | 1.44 | -15.7% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.05 | 2.95 | +43.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1415.04 | 1576.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.46 | -3.38 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.00 |