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Los Angeles Dodgers 4–9 Boston Red Sox

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 02:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Ranger Suarez (ERA 3.02, WHIP 1.15)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won
leg 2: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost
leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won
Chaos parlay$2.005.92$9.84+34%-2.00lost
Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
Elo value MLB$10.001.79$7.94+12%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Los Angeles Dodgers win57%34.00
Boston Red Sox win43%2.59

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Boston Red Sox win2.291.57-31.2%
Los Angeles Dodgers win1.5517.85+1053.8%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Boston Red Sox0120005019
Los Angeles Dodgers0001300004

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles DodgersBoston Red Sox
congestion 21d15.0016.00
elo1600.621544.03
elo momentum (last 5)-1.967.12
matches since win0.000.00
rest days1.001.02
runs against avg (last 10)4.203.60
runs for avg (last 10)4.604.10