← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Max Fried (ERA 3.23, WHIP 1.02) · home: David Peterson (ERA 5.8, WHIP 1.52)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Milwaukee Brewers win in Los Angeles Angels v Milwaukee Brewers · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 won leg 2: Los Angeles Dodgers win in Los Angeles Dodgers v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 lost leg 3: Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.92 | $9.84 | +34% | -2.00 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +6% | +9.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 52% | 1.97 |
| Chicago Cubs win | 48% | 2.10 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.83 | 1.81 | -1.2% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.93 | 2.05 | +6.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1545.83 | 1555.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.35 | 4.35 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.30 |