← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Casey Mize (ERA 2.7, WHIP 0.99) · home: Jeffrey Springs (ERA 6.23, WHIP 1.45)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Yankees win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 won leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.19 | $20.37 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.24 | $12.36 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 57% | 1.93 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 43% | 2.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers win | 1.67 | 1.93 | +15.4% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.14 | 1.90 | -11.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| Oakland Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Detroit Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1432.74 | 1501.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.87 | -5.23 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 2.35 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.50 |