← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 31, 06:20 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Will Warren (ERA 4.41, WHIP 1.41) · home: Shota Imanaga (ERA 3.72, WHIP 1.1)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Yankees win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 won leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.19 | $20.37 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.39 | $13.90 | +10% | +13.90 | won |
New York Yankees win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.39 | $13.90 | +10% | +13.90 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 54% | 3.96 |
| New York Yankees win | 46% | 2.39 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 1.90 | 2.28 | +20.2% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.76 | 1.65 | -6.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1549.10 | 1552.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.59 | -3.24 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.90 |