← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 1, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael Wacha (ERA 3.6, WHIP 1.17) · home: Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 4.69, WHIP 1.29)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: New York Yankees win in Chicago Cubs v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.39 won leg 2: Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 lost leg 3: Oakland Athletics win in Oakland Athletics v Detroit Tigers · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 11.19 | $20.37 | +30% | -2.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.95 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.95 | $9.50 | +8% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 52% | 2.59 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 48% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.65 | 2.59 | +57.1% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.19 | 1.52 | -30.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Colorado Rockies | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1380.34 | 1454.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.81 | 5.96 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 2.19 | 1.29 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.30 |