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Chicago White Sox 6–5 New York Yankees

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 11:40 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Cam Schlittler (ERA 2.07, WHIP 0.93) · home: Davis Martin (ERA 3.49, WHIP 1.27)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 won
leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91 won
leg 3: Boston Red Sox win in Oakland Athletics v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 won
Chaos parlay$2.007.49$12.98+16%+12.98won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32
Elo value MLB$10.002.32$13.20+7%+13.20won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32
MLB dog variance$10.002.32$13.20+7%+13.20won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
New York Yankees win56%1.79
Chicago White Sox win44%13.41

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
New York Yankees win1.721.06-38.3%
Chicago White Sox win1.9713.41+580.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789101112Total
New York Yankees4000000000105
Chicago White Sox0000001300116

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChicago White SoxNew York Yankees
congestion 21d15.0015.00
elo1492.461557.03
elo momentum (last 5)-8.836.39
matches since win2.000.00
rest days1.001.00
runs against avg (last 10)4.403.80
runs for avg (last 10)4.203.70