New York Mets 0–1 Atlanta Braves

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Chris Sale (ERA 2.19, WHIP 1.05) · home: Christian Scott (ERA 3.13, WHIP 1.26)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91 won leg 3: Boston Red Sox win in Oakland Athletics v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 won	Chaos parlay	$2.00	7.49	$12.98	+16%	+12.98	won
Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.91	$9.10	+6%	+9.10	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Atlanta Braves win	51%	1.91
New York Mets win	49%	2.07

across 8 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Atlanta Braves	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
New York Mets	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	New York Mets	Atlanta Braves
congestion 21d	15.00	16.00
elo	1479.72	1535.34
elo momentum (last 5)	9.74	-6.26
matches since win	0.00	2.00
rest days	0.25	0.25
runs against avg (last 10)	3.50	5.40
runs for avg (last 10)	4.70	4.40