← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 01:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Patrick Sandoval (ERA 3.21, WHIP 1.64) · home: Jacob Lopez (ERA 6.12, WHIP 1.67)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.32 won leg 2: Atlanta Braves win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.91 won leg 3: Boston Red Sox win in Oakland Athletics v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.49 | $12.98 | +16% | +12.98 | won |
Boston Red Sox win in Oakland Athletics v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.69 | $6.90 | +2% | +6.90 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 61% | 1.69 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 39% | 11.74 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.62 | 1.06 | -34.6% | |
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.09 | 3.52 | +68.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oakland Athletics | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1436.75 | 1540.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.79 | 0.08 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.50 |