← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Joey Cantillo (ERA 4.02, WHIP 1.46) · home: Brady Singer (ERA 4.53, WHIP 1.38)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.17 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.17 | $11.70 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.67 | $13.35 | +15% | -2.00 | lost |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.51 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 53% | 1.90 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 47% | 2.17 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.86 | 1.75 | -5.7% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.86 | 2.13 | +14.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1479.07 | 1507.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.99 | -10.02 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |