← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 05:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Trey Yesavage (ERA 3.92, WHIP 1.18) · home: Zack Littell (ERA 5.17, WHIP 1.34)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.67 | $13.35 | +15% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 51% | 1.93 |
| Washington Nationals win | 49% | 2.08 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays win | 1.83 | 1.83 | 0.0% | |
| Washington Nationals win | 1.86 | 2.05 | +10.3% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1479.40 | 1489.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.41 | -0.78 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 2.80 |