← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Jul 30, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Hayden Wesneski (ERA undefined, WHIP undefined) · home: Grayson Rodriguez (ERA 8.54, WHIP 1.79)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Washington Nationals v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 2: Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 won leg 3: Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Cleveland Guardians · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 lost | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 7.67 | $13.35 | +15% | -2.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Los Angeles Angels v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +5% | +8.61 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 53% | 3.66 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 47% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.79 | 3.66 | +103.8% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.93 | 1.31 | -32.2% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| elo | 1420.57 | 1501.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.94 | 7.86 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.70 |