← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 21, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zac Thornton (ERA 2.6, WHIP 0.92) · home: Brandon Sproat (ERA 5.16, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.65 | $9.31 | +40% | -2.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +13% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Portfolio | $17.11 | 1.62 | $10.63 | +5% | -17.11 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 56% | 23.43 |
| New York Mets win | 44% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.34 | 1.03 | -56.1% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.50 | 23.43 | +1460.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1588.18 | 1465.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.06 | 3.10 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.80 |