← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 12:40 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Miles Mikolas (ERA 5.53, WHIP 1.33) · home: Michael Lorenzen (ERA 6.22, WHIP 1.77)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.65 | $9.31 | +40% | -2.00 | lost |
Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +12% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 51% | 2.01 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 49% | 2.46 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 1.86 | 1.57 | -15.6% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 1.83 | 2.46 | +34.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| elo | 1382.92 | 1472.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.56 | 5.87 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.90 |