← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 21, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kendry Rojas (ERA 2.79, WHIP 1.6) · home: Parker Messick (ERA 2.73, WHIP 1.07)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
leg 1: Washington Nationals win in Colorado Rockies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 lost leg 2: Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 lost leg 3: Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 won | Chaos parlay | $2.00 | 5.65 | $9.31 | +40% | -2.00 | lost |
Cleveland Guardians win in Cleveland Guardians v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +10% | +7.63 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 57% | 1.76 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 43% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 2.09 | 2.28 | +9.0% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.07 | 1.67 | +55.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1523.85 | 1463.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.19 | -3.27 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |